English

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

The Cryosphere ()

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026

Forskningsartikkel

Åpen tilgang (ukjent)

under lisensen CC BY

1 Akvaplan-niva (nåværende ansatt)

1 Akvaplan-niva (tidligere ansatt)

Forfattere (28)
  1. Claire K. Yung
  2. Xylar S. Asay-Davis
  3. Alistair Adcroft
  4. Christopher Y. S. Bull
  5. Jan De Rydt
  6. Michael S. Dinniman
  7. Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
  8. Daniel Goldberg
  9. David E. Gwyther
  10. Robert Hallberg
  11. Matthew Harrison
  12. Tore Hattermann
  13. David M. Holland
  14. Denise Holland
  15. Paul R. Holland
  16. James R. Jordan
  17. Nicolas C. Jourdain
  18. Kazuya Kusahara
  19. Gustavo Marques
  20. Pierre Mathiot
  21. Dimitris Menemenlis
  22. Adele K. Morrison
  23. Yoshihiro Nakayama
  24. Olga Sergienko
  25. Robin S. Smith
  26. Alon Stern
  27. Ralph Timmermann
  28. Qin Zhou

Abstract

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice shelf geometries, but where the ocean reaches a balance with prescribed far-field ocean conditions. Different thermal transfer coefficient values (ranging from 0.011 to 0.2) are used for each model in the melting parameterisation to achieve a common, tuned melt rate since the models cover a range of types of vertical coordinates, ice–ocean boundary layer treatments, and numerical schemes. These model differences lead to spread in the resultant ocean properties, circulation, boundary-layer structure and spatial distribution of melting. We also highlight similarities between models, such as a shared linear relationship across most models between melt rate and overturning and barotropic streamfunctions during the spin-up and spin-down, demonstrating a robust relationship between melt and circulation across models and forcing conditions. The ISOMIP+ results provide a systematic comparison of ice shelf cavity-capable ocean models. However, we also demonstrate the need for realistic ice shelf–ocean model intercomparison projects (some already underway) to assess model biases and inter-model variation against sparse observations. Further research is needed to understand the differences between models and further improve our modelled representations of the ice–ocean boundary layer and ice shelf cavity circulation.

Prosjekter
  • Ocean-ice shelf Interaction and channelized Melting in Dronning Maud Land
  • iC3: Centre for Ice, Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate
  • Fra klimatiske drivere til iskappen over Antarktis: bedre prognoser for havnivåstigning{"id":"01k894aagv93y00s7tjz0wadjr","abbr":"CLIM2Ant","created":"2025-10-23T18:11:58.011Z","created_by":"che@akvaplan.niva.no","updated":"2025-10-25T15:07:05.408Z","updated_by":"che@akvaplan.niva.no","title":{"en":"From Climatic Drivers to Antarctic Ice Sheet Response: Improving Accuracy in Sea Level Rise Projections","no":"Fra klimatiske drivere til iskappen over Antarktis: bedre prognoser for havnivåstigning"},"summary":{"en":"The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) stores a large amount of freshwater. If melted completely, it would contribute 58 m to global mean sea level rise. According to IPCC AR6, a rise of up to 5 m by 2150 cannot be ruled out under a high-emission scenario due to the large uncertainty related to AIS processes. Such a strong increase in sea level would becatastrophic for many low-lying regions worldwide, but how likely is it?\n\nThe AIS gains mass mainly through snow accumulation and loses mass through iceberg calving and ocean-inducedbasal melting of its floating parts. Future projections of AIS mass balance are based on ice sheet model simulationsforced by climate model outputs. Climate models can properly project large-scale climate changes but struggle torepresent small-scale coastal processes that bring heat to the ice sheet margins. This leads to poor representation ofbasal melting and thus substantial uncertainties in projections of Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise. Climatemodels also suggest compensating mass change under climate warming in Dronning Maud Land: increased basalmelting and more snowfall.This project brings together glaciology and oceanography, sophisticated numerical modelling and statistical analysistechniques to address these two key uncertainties of sea level rise projections:1) Our combined approach of ocean model downscaling and statistical emulation enables us to assess future ocean-induced AIS mass loss more accurately and thus reduce uncertainties in its contribution to sea level rise.2) Our regional fine-resolution coupled ice sheet-ocean model enables us to provide improved projections for icemass balance and ice sheet movement in the Norwegian administrated Dronning Maud Land sector of Antarctica.Our project outcomes will directly contribute to future assessments of ice sheet sea-level contributions and addresstwo of the goals of the EU Decade for Ocean Research: a predicted ocean and an accessible ocean.","no":"Havnivåstigning er en av de største truslene mot menneskeheten som følge av klimaendringene. Endringene i havnivå styres hovedsakelig av smeltingen av isbreer og iskapper, samt utvidelse av havvann når det varmes opp. Det er per i dag forventet at havnivået vil stige med 60 cm innen dette århundret.\n\nDersom utslippene av klimagasser fortsetter å være høye kan smeltingen av iskappen over Antarktis (kalt \"Antarctic Ice Sheet\" - AIS) bety en havnivåstigning på 5 meter innen 2150. En slik stigning i havnivået vil ha katastrofale konsekvenser for lavtliggende områder i hele verden. Men hvor sannsynlig er det? Den Antarktiske iskappen består av 90% av all is på jorden. Hvis alt dette skulle smelte så ville det bety en havnivåstigning på 58 meter. \n\nÅ forutse smeltingen av AIS er derfor av kritisk betydning for myndigheter og beslutningstagere for å avgjøre hvilke tiltak og strategier som skal velges for å redusere utslipp av klimagasser og å forebygge konsekvenser av den globale oppvarmingen. AIS vokser i hovedsak ved akkumulering av snø og minsker gjennom smelteprosesser der isbremmen er i kontakt med Sørishavet.\n\nPrediksjoner av massebalansen til AIS er basert på numeriske modeller. Men det er knyttet usikkerhet til hvor mye smeltingen av isen i Antarktis vil bidra til havnivåendringer i fremtiden. Ved å kombinere fagområdene glasiologi og oseanografi med numeriske modellering og statistikk søker dette prosjektet (CLIM2Ant) å forbedre vår evne til å forutse hvordan isen i Antarktis vil bidra til havnivåendringene. Prosjektets resultater vil bidra direkte til fremtidige vurderinger av hvilken påvirkning AIS vil ha på havnivået."},"modified":"2025-10-25T15:07:04.960Z","start":"2024-01-01","end":"2027-12-31","rcn":343397,"cristin":2730024,"fhf":0,"mynewsdesk":0,"published":"2025-10-23T18:11:58.011Z","akvaplanists":["qin"],"lang":"no"}
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