Stakeholder perspectives on the response of the Barents Sea to multiple pressures.

Abstract

Human activities, climate variability and change, and other drivers affect the structure and dynamics of the Barents Sea, as well as the ecosystem services it provides. Anticipating the combined effects of these multiple drivers is required to support management decisions, but stakeholder groups, managers and scientists may hold different points-of-view on the functioning of the Barents Sea and may therefore have distinct anticipations. This contribution explores how stakeholders can anticipate the consequences of changes in multiple drivers on the Barents Sea ecosystem and its associated services. The approach is based on a scoping exercise followed by qualitative modelling. The scoping exercise was conducted with six stakeholder groups representing different sectors (fishing, shipping, tourism, oil and gas) and interest (environmental protection), during a 2-day workshop and subsequent dialogues. From this, several hierarchical conceptual models of the Barents Sea were constructed. The conceptual models were then used to develop qualitative models that predict how different components of the Barents Sea may respond to changes in one or several driving forces. We applied selected scenarios of changes in human activities and changes in the biomass of animal groups to assess the effects of cumulative impacts. These modelling experiments were conducted on a synthesis model common to the stakeholder groups and on stakeholder-specific models. The model results indicate that cumulative impacts are mostly additive. The comparison of results across models reveals that the conclusions derived from the synthesis model are robust and reflect well the perspectives of the various stakeholders. This suggests that there exists a common understanding of the Barents Sea functioning across stakeholder groups and that, at least in some instances, a common representation of the system may be used to support ecosystem-based management.