Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition (PAEC) – Technical protocol version 2

Abstract

Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition (PAEC) is a new structured protocol for assessing the condition of an ecosystem relative to a given reference condition. This report describes in detail how each step of the assessment should be performed. The assessment is done by a panel of scientists with openings for stakeholder involvement. As a basis for the assessment, a set of ecosystem characteristics are defined, that together capture key aspects of structure and processes in the system and covering both biotic and abiotic parts of the ecosystem. The protocol consists of four phases: scoping, analysis, assessment and reporting & peer review. First, the scoping phase identifies a set of indicators used to assess the condition of each of the ecosystem characteristics. The second step is the formulation of formalized expectations (termed phenomena) describing expected directional changes in each of the indicators away from the reference condition as a result of relevant drivers in the system. Phenomena are thus the equivalent of a scientific hypothesis formulated prior to a scientific study. The validity of each phenomenon is assessed, reflecting how well we understand the links between drivers and indicator, how well the indicator reflects the condition of the ecological characteristics and the wider ecological significance of the phenomenon. Data sources are identified and data coverage in time and space are described for each indicator. The analysis phase consists of statistical analyses of the underlying data to permit an evaluation of the level of evidence for each phenomenon. In the assessment phase, the condition of each ecosystem characteristic is evaluated by taking into account phenomenon validity, evidence and data coverage across all phenomena within the characteristic. Based on this, an overall assessment for the ecosystem as a whole is done. The final step is an independent peer review of the assessment report with the aim of continuous improvements of the evidence base for phenomena and other elements of the assessment.